Sudan, today and tomorrow

By: Mohammad Yahia

Sudan today is geographically and historically identifiable. All agree that it lives a state flaccidity, more than any other country, in both politics and security. It is expected to be divided into a “Sudanese commonwealth” that has no tie to Arabism or Islam.

This situation is inevitable since the Arabs have lost their politic and military immunity. Their countries have turned to areas of influence and military bases to fight the so-called “terrorism”.

Real terrorism is to humiliate and persecute citizens, which becomes more violent and sever day after day. May be the Arabs of these days have agreed on nothing except the security policies. The Arab interior ministers have periodical meetings in Tunisia, whose president received the “shield of freedom” from the federation of Arab journalists this year.

Returning to Sudan, which is about to hold the South independence referendum. First; it cannot stop, delay or cripple such a procedure for it has international warranty although it is a superficial process.

Here, we must mention an important fact that a great number of Sudanese people and educated and ruling elites wait for the day when the south separates from the north to get rid of a heavy burden that has been exhausting the country for half a century. This party thinks that keeping the rest of Sudan is better that losing the whole of it.

However, the Sudanese regime may not let things to happen so easily. It may threaten the southern political and security stability, even after independence, especially that the Sudanese security forces have completely penetrated the south and have militias that are ready to execute the orders.

Will the Sudanese government carry out this scenario where the South turns to a spot of tribal, sectarian and racial conflict and then it would damn the day of independence and ask for forgiveness?

In such a case, it would be a lesson for whoever thinks of rebellion or self-determination.

However, such a plan could fail and consequently the current regime would be threatened by the international society, which supports the newborn entity.

There are many other scenarios that may happen. For example:

The referendum may be held very easily. Establishing the state institutions will not take very long for they already exist. Then the world will celebrate the new state. Silva Kiir will receive Congratulatory telegrams from the leaders of the world, especially Obama, Medvedev and Sarkozy, whom he will invite to his humble palace in Juba or Torit.

Moreover, Shimon Peres may open an embassy there and arrange with Silva Kiir his needs of weapons and experts in various fields. They may study together israel’s requirements of pure water, which southern Sudan will control part of it, in addition to protocols of friendship and cooperation in all fields, especially the strategic ones. They may reach a joint defense agreement.

Silva Kiir will be invited to visit Tel Aviv, Washington, Paris and London.

Multi national Oil companies will be interested in the man to gain some privileges for Oil exploration in south Sudan.

And of course the new president will tarry to join the Arab League. He may prefer not to join it and be satisfied with good relations with the Arab neighbors.

The southern state may be involved in a process of polarization by the international community on one hand and the Arabs on the other hand.

This scenario may seem fictitious but it may happen especially that the needed instruments are available.

Here, there is an important question:

What will we do if this takes place?

Will we recognize such a state? Will we be keen to acquire its friendship to protect our interests there and to stress our role in Africa?

If we do, will this harm out good relation with the North?

Or will we balance between the two sides to secure our interests in both countries?

The proble is that the government of the north may put hard choices which may force the Egyptian regime to sacrifice it at any time?

Don’t you see, dear reader, that it is narrow-mindedness for the Sudanese president to explode the case of Halaib now?

The Sudanese problem is a great challenge for Egypt that needs deep understanding and unique cleverness to deal with. There are many urgent questions that require definite answers that some doubt the Egyptian foreign ministry, accused to be failed in African issues, has. Nevertheless, there is still trust in some strategic institutions in Egypt that make us relax to a great extent.

Translated by: R. El Saeed

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